October 2007


Canadian Employment and Earnings Details

In August, the Canadian average weekly earnings of payroll employees increased $1.13 from July to $772.59. The year-to-date growth, calculated as the average of the first eight months of 2007 compared with the average of the same eight months in 2006, was 3.1 percent.

In Canada’s largest industrial sectors, earnings grew for the first eight months of 2007 in manufacturing (+3.6%), health and social assistance (+3.4%), educational services (+0.9%), and retail trade (+0.2%).

Nationally, the number of occupied payroll jobs climbed 16,100 to 14,336,400 in August. Growth among the provinces varied, with Newfoundland, Labrador and Alberta recording the strongest gains.

The industrial sectors showing the strongest employment growth in August were mining, oil and gas extraction, real estate and rental and leasing (+1.5%).

Since December 2006, the biggest gain in payroll jobs has been in construction (+5.2%). Overall, payroll employment has grown 118,700 payroll jobs since the beginning of the year (+0.8%).

The average Canadian hourly earnings for hourly-paid employees was virtually unchanged in August at $19.01. The average Canadian weekly hours for hourly-paid employees was unchanged at 31.2 hours.

Canadian Quarterly Economic Survey

The Canadian dollar capped its five-year appreciation against the US dollar by achieving parity late in September. The increase accompanied higher commodity prices, notably record prices for oil and wheat, and a cut in US interest rates. The latter was motivated by the turmoil in financial markets that began in mid-August, and renewed weakness in the US housing market.

In Canada, however, there were few signs that the disruption in some financial markets was affecting the real economy. Figures from Statistics Canada show employment jumped 0.3 percent in September, helping to send the unemployment rate to a 31-year low of 5.9 percent. Higher commodity and stock market prices in September also pointed to the underlying strength of the economy. Short-term business credit growth was steady, as more bank loans made up for a drop in commercial paper.

The Consumer Price Index fell 0.1 percent between July and August, largely due to lower gasoline prices. As a result, the annual inflation rate slowed substantially to 1.7 percent from the 2.2 percent posted in each of the previous four months.

Much of the drop in gasoline prices reflects an easing in the cost of crude oil over the summer (before surging to new record highs in September). But part of the drop also reflects the stronger Canadian dollar: gasoline prices in Canada fell 7.7 percent, more than the 4.9 percent drop in the US. This continues a trend that began when the loonie began its appreciation in 2003: since then, gasoline prices have risen 42 percent in Canada, while US drivers have seen prices jump 90 percent. While Canada imports little gasoline directly from the US, the North American market is fully integrated, ensuring that any savings from the exchange rate are passed on to drivers in Canada. Most studies of the impact of the exchange rate on import prices ignore this effect, which has saved Canadians $10.2 billion, or $823 per household on average, over the last five years.

Quebec
Household demand in Quebec softened over the summer, after pay equity settlements had fuelled strong gains in the spring. Housing starts fell steadily over the summer, while retail sales in June and July gave back all of their 5 percent gain in May. The underlying determinants of growth remained strong. Employment grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter, and unemployment remained at its lowest level on record. Manufacturing sales dipped early in the summer due to temporary declines in oil and metals prices. Since these industries represent 25 percent of its sales of manufactured goods, Quebec remains well positioned to profit from the recent rebound in their prices.

British Columbia
British Columbia’s resource sector continued to hamper growth. In particular, its forestry products, which account for one-third of its shipments, were hit by a province-wide strike late in July. This was the latest blow to the lumber industry, which has seen shipments tumble 22 percent in a little over a year. Still, British Columbia’s overall employment growth of 2.9 percent in the past year remained the third highest among the provinces, led by construction. This helped buoy housing starts and retail sales over the summer.

Ontario
Ontario also continued to shift away from its traditional manufacturing base. It has shed 60,000 factory jobs in the past year. Nevertheless, employment growth has remained close to the national average due to services. Business services led the way with gains of nearly 10 percent. Education and accommodation and food have also seen employment grow at double-digit rates. Housing starts remained steady into August, but Ontario retail sales in July were the weakest in Canada.

Canadian environment continues to face challenges

Canada’s environment continues to face challenges with respect to air and water quality and greenhouse gas emissions, according to the third annual report of environmental indicators from Statistics Canada.

Exposure to some components of smog increasing over the long term

The air quality indicators track measures of Canadians’ exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter during the warm season (April 1 to September 30). These pollutants are key components of smog and can lead to adverse health effects even at low concentrations in the air.

The report shows that the ozone exposure indicator increased by an average of 0.8% a year between 1990 and 2005. This is equivalent to an overall increase of about 12% between 1990 and 2005.

Regionally, the ozone exposure indicator increased in southern Ontario and in southern Quebec over the period. The indicator level was unchanged in other regions.

The exposure indicator for fine particulate matter did not show any significant increase or decrease between 2000 and 2005, the only period for which consistent data are available.

Transportation, electricity generation, wood burning and the use of chemical products such as paint and solvents can increase levels of ozone and fine particulate matter in the air.

Greenhouse gas emissions up sharply since 1990, despite decline in intensity

In 2005, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions were estimated at 747 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, up 25% from 1990. These emissions were 33% above the target set by the Kyoto Protocol.

Greenhouse gas emissions increased significantly between 1990 and 2005, despite the fact that 17.8% less greenhouse gas was emitted per unit of economic activity in 2005 compared with 1990. Increases in overall economic activity resulted in increases in both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Contrary to the general trend since 1990, greenhouse gas emissions were nearly stable between 2003 and 2005. This change was due primarily to a reduction in emissions from electricity production (reduced coal-fired generation and increased hydro and nuclear generation), reduced demand for home heating fuels due to warm winters and a reduced rate of increase in fossil fuel production.

Freshwater quality: Phosphorous a concern for aquatic life

This indicator assesses surface freshwater quality with respect to the protection of fish, aquatic invertebrates and plants. It does not assess the quality of water for human consumption and use. The indicator is based on information gathered from 2003 to 2005.

Water monitoring results throughout southern Canada show that guidelines for protecting aquatic life were not met, at least occasionally, at many sites.

Tests at 359 river and lake monitoring sites in southern Canada found that freshwater quality was rated as “good” or “excellent” at 44% of the sites, “fair” at 33%, and “marginal” or “poor” at 23%.

The report found that phosphorus was a major concern for surface freshwater quality in Canada. Phosphorus levels in southern Canada did not meet the water quality guidelines for aquatic life over half the time at 127 of 344 monitoring sites.

Most phosphorus in water comes from sewage, agricultural runoff and industrial wastewater.

An oversupply of phosphorous in water can result in excessive growth of aquatic plants such as algae and reduce the amount of dissolved oxygen available for fish and other aquatic animals. Some algal blooms can be toxic, threatening livestock and human health.

Challenges for the Growing Canadian Economy

The indicator results are partly due to the growing Canadian population and economy. Between 1990 and 2005, Canada’s population increased by 17%, to 32.3 million. This increase, coupled with economic growth, led to greater resource use and waste production, increased greenhouse gas emissions and, in certain cases, more air and water pollution.

Unemployment falls below 6 percent in Canada

The Canadian unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage points to 5.9 percent in September, the first time since November 1974 that the rate has been below 6.0 percent. Employment rose by an estimated 51,000, with gains concentrated in full-time employment reported Statistics Canada.

In September, core-age workers—that is, persons aged 25 to 54—experienced their first significant gain in employment (+40,000) since the start of the year.

Older workers (aged 55 and over) also showed employment strength with an increase of 23,000 in September.

Employment increased by an estimated 30,000 in Ontario, all full-time work. Despite this increase, employment growth in the province over the first nine months of the year remains below the national average of 1.7 percent.

The largest employment increases in September were in educational services, followed by public administration; professional, scientific and technical services; and agriculture. There were declines, however, in retail trade.

Employees, on average, earned 4.2 percent more per hour in September than they did in September 2006, while the most recent year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index was 1.7 percent. This is the largest estimated year-over-year increase in average hourly wages since the Labour Force Survey began collecting this information in 1997.

Ontario
Ontario’s overall employment picture improved in September. Employment in the province increased by an estimated 30,000, the first significant gain this year, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 6.2 percent.

In September, the largest increases in employment in Ontario were in educational services as well as in information, culture and recreation. There were also gains in public administration, mostly at the local, municipal and provincial levels. Some of this gain was likely the result of the hiring of additional workers for the provincial election. Manufacturing, however, continued to slump, with 44,000 fewer workers over the first nine months of this year.

Saskatchewan
The employment picture also improved in Saskatchewan in September, with an estimated increase of 7,000, all in the service-producing sector. This increase, however, only brings employment in the province back to the same level as at the end of 2006. September’s employment increase pushed the unemployment rate down 1.1 percentage points to 3.8 percent, the second lowest in the country after Alberta.

Alberta
The strongest employment growth over the first nine months of 2007 occurred in Alberta, up 3.4 percent, with gains across a number of industries. The unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent in September, remained the lowest in the country.

New Brunswick
New Brunswick had the second-strongest employment growth (+2.5 percent) in the country so far this year. However, the unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.2 percent in September, the result of more people looking for work.

British Columbia
British Columbia ranks third in employment growth so far this year (+2.2 percent), with the largest gains in retail trade as well as construction. With no employment change in September and an increase in the number of people entering the labour force in search of work, the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 4.3 percent.

Quebec
Quebec’s employment growth so far this year (+2.0 percent) has also been above the national average, with gains in part-time employment (+8.0 percent) outpacing those of full-time work (+0.7 percent). Increases for the year have been in accommodation and food services; trade; and construction and utilities. Similar to Ontario, Quebec’s manufacturing sector employment has also declined in 2007. In September, the unemployment rate returned to its 33-year low of 6.9 percent, and the employment rate remained at its record high of 61.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month.

Manitoba
Manitoba’s employment growth so far this year, at 1.9 percent, was led by gains in professional, scientific and technical services as well as construction. The proportion of working-age Manitobans with a job reached 66.5 percent in September, an all-time high.

Canadian Wages increase to $773 a week in July

In July, the average weekly earnings of payroll employees increased $3.41 from June to $773.32 according to Statistics Canada. The year-to-date growth, calculated as the average of the first seven months of 2007 compared with the average of the same seven months in 2006, was 3.2 percent.

In Canada’s largest industrial sectors, earnings grew for the first seven months of 2007 in manufacturing, in health and social assistance, and in educational services, and were little changed in retail trade.

Nationally, the number of occupied payroll jobs edged up 21,800 to 14,303,300 in July. Growth among the provinces varied, with Manitoba and British Columbia showing the strongest increase.

The industrial sectors showing the strongest employment growth in July were mining, oil and gas extraction, and transportation and warehousing.

The number of payroll jobs has grown 85,600 since the beginning of 2007.

The average hourly earnings for hourly-paid employees edged up in July to $19.09.

Canadian Average Weekly Earnings July 2007

Province Earnings $
Newfoundland and Labrador 721
Prince Edward Island 629
Nova Scotia 668
New Brunswick 706
Quebec 726
Ontario 805
Manitoba 703
Saskatchewan 727
Alberta 845
British Columbia 765