Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador have stepped into a new era of prosperity, according to a study released in the Canadian Economic Observer. The ongoing commodity boom, starting in 2002, offered a unique opportunity for these two provinces to tap into their natural resources as never before. Driven by export growth, notably that of crude oil, Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy led the nation in terms of growth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007, at 13.4 percent. Saskatchewan followed with growth of 11.4 percent, ahead of Alberta’s 8.3 percent.

Newfoundland & Labrador’s growth in nominal GDP of 76 percent between 2002 and 2007 also topped Alberta’s gain of 73 percent. Saskatchewan posted the third highest gain over the period, its GDP advancing 49 percent.

In terms of GDP per capita, Newfoundland & Labrador has registered the largest turnaround in one decade in Canadian history. In 1997, it was $10,000 below the Canada average, and as recently as 2005 it remained below average. But in 2007, it jumped to $57,348, over $10,000 above the Canada average of $46,441.

Alberta ($74,825), Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan ($51,327) were the only three provinces where GDP per capita was above average in 2007.

Oil
Higher crude oil prices have been driving the boom in Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan. They are the top producers of crude petroleum in Canada after Alberta, accounting for almost one-third of Canada’s production.

Exports
Newfoundland & Labrador’s international exports soared 20 percent in 2007, the most rapid growth of any province. Between 2002 and 2007, exports doubled to reach $12 billion, as prices rose for Newfoundland & Labrador’s energy products and metals.

In 2007, Saskatchewan exported $21 billion to other countries, a 13 percent increase over 2006. This placed Saskatchewan behind only Newfoundland & Labrador for the title of fastest growing provincial exports. In addition to crude oil, agricultural products, potash, and uranium have made major gains since 2005.

Population
Perhaps most significantly, both Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan have reversed their long-term trend of a declining population. In the last two quarters of 2007, the number of people moving into Newfoundland & Labrador was the highest that it had been in 30 years. At the same time, out-migration slowed, resulting in the population increasing for the first time in 15 years.

Saskatchewan’s population grew 0.8 percent in 2007, its first increase in over a decade, which put the population once again to 1 million. Moreover, the population of the 15 and over age group in Saskatchewan in April 2008 was 2.0 percent larger than it was in April 2007. This was just slightly slower than the 2.2 percent year-over-year increase in Alberta.

Incomes
As incomes have risen and population growth has resumed, Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan consumers have gone on a buying binge, leading provincial growth in retail, housing and auto sales.

26 May 2008

A study published by Statistics Canada provides insights into the changing fortunes of immigrants in Canada.

The study found that instability in earnings for immigrants usually declines substantially after they have spent several years in Canada. This is consistent with the view that during the first several years in Canada, immigrants move more frequently from one job to another, or have part-time or temporary jobs. As they gain experience in Canada, immigrants are likely to find more stable employment.

The study is also the first to compare the earnings instability of immigrants who arrived in Canada in the 1980s with that of immigrants who arrived in Canada in 1990s. For example, based on the earnings in the four years after landing, the earnings instability of immigrants who came to Canada between 1998 and 2000 was substantially higher than the earnings instability of those who came to Canada between 1980 and 1982.

In the past, immigrants who came to Canada in their 40s had higher earnings instability than young immigrants. However, the earnings instability of young immigrants who came to Canada in the late 1990s was almost as high as the earnings instability of immigrants in their 30s and 40s who came to Canada during the same period.

The study found that earnings inequality rose among recent immigrants over the last two decades, consistent with previous studies that documented the evolution of earnings inequality for all Canadian workers.

Although foreign education, the ability to speak one of the official languages and birthplace accounts for a large part of immigrants’ earnings inequality (up to 44 percent), much of it remains unexplained by these factors.

The birthplace of immigrants seems to have had a stronger impact on earnings inequality than other factors considered in the study, such as foreign education and ability to speak English or French.

26 May 2008

A new report analysing the labour market for immigrants in 2007 showed that employment for immigrants aged 25 to 54 reached nearly 2.5 million. Full-time employment, which accounted for 90 percent of those jobs, increased 3.0 percent. Despite this increase, the employment rate gap between immigrants and the Canadian born widened.

While the immigrant employment rate edged up 0.2 percentage points to 77.9 percent, the employment rate for the Canadian born rose by 0.7 percentage points to 83.8 percent.

In 2007, the employment rate rose faster for the Canadian born, as their employment growth greatly outpaced their population growth, while immigrant employment increases did not match their population gains. The end result was that the employment rate gap between immigrants and the Canadian born widened from 5.4 percentage points in 2006 to 5.9 percentage points in 2007.

The unemployment rate among core working-age immigrants edged up from 6.5 percent to 6.6 percent, which was higher than the rate of 4.6 percent among the Canadian born.

Almost all of the employment growth for immigrants in 2007 occurred among established immigrants, namely those who had been in Canada for more than 10 years. Gains for very recent immigrants, those in the country for five years or less, were relatively small. Despite a dip in the unemployment rate of these very recent immigrants, the rate remained more than double that of the Canadian born.

Quebec
Although employment increased substantially for immigrants living in Quebec, unemployment among them was still high in the province.

Over half (+28,000) of the growth in employment for Canadian immigrants in 2007 took place in Quebec. Their unemployment rate also fell from 12.0 percent to 10.2 percent. In contrast, the unemployment rate for the Canadian born in Quebec was 5.6 percent.

In Quebec, gains among immigrants accounted for three-quarters of the province’s total annual employment growth. Quebec was the only province where the majority of employment growth came from their core working-age immigrant population in 2007.

More than three-quarters of employment growth for immigrants in Quebec in 2007 occurred among established immigrants, who saw their employment increase by an estimated 22,000, all in full-time work. As a result, the employment rate for established immigrants rose from 76.8 percent to 78.7 percent. Virtually all of this growth was for established immigrant men and women born in Asia.

Alberta
Immigrants in Alberta benefited from the strong labour market in the oil-rich province. Their employment growth in 2007 was the second highest among the provinces at 8.4 percent (+18,000), with almost all the gains in full-time jobs.

Ontario
In Ontario, however, the entire core working-age population experienced its slowest overall employment growth so far this decade. In 2007, Ontario immigrants experienced only modest gains in employment (+0.3%).

Transportation and accommodation & food services industries
As was the case for the Canadian born, most employment growth for immigrants aged 25 to 54 was in the service sector, although the growth occurred in different industries.

Immigrants made notable gains in transportation (+19,000) and accommodation and food services (+15,000). For the Canadian born, the largest gains were in public administration, professional, scientific and technical services, as well as finance, insurance, real estate and leasing.

Goods sector
In the goods sector, Canadian-born workers saw construction employment expand and manufacturing employment shrink. Immigrants recorded a modest decline in construction and a small gain in manufacturing.

Educational background
University-educated immigrants of core working age had the largest gains in immigrant employment, with an estimated gain of 62,000 (+7.0%), all in full-time work.

In contrast, the vast majority of employment growth for the Canadian born was among those with a post-secondary certificate or diploma.

Older migrants show gains in employment
Among the various age groups, older immigrants aged 55 and over posted very strong gains. Their employment increased 9.3 percent, overshadowing the pace of 6.5 percent for Canadian-born older workers. Among young immigrants aged 15 to 24, employment rose 2.0 percent, virtually the same rate as for Canadian-born youth.

Asian-born immigrants
Employment grew by an estimated 53,000 (+4.9%) for Asian-born immigrants aged 25 to 54, overwhelmingly in full-time positions. Among this Asian-born population, unemployment and employment rates of those born in the Philippines were particularly robust. Overall employment for Filipinos grew by 8.3 percent, virtually all in full time. Their overall employment rate increased to 88.9 percent, higher than the rates for both the Canadian born and immigrants of other source countries.

European immigrants
Overall, European-born immigrants are, second to Asians, the largest group of immigrants to Canada. Employment growth for core working-age European-born immigrants was relatively flat between 2006 and 2007 (+0.5%).

19 May 2008

Canadian employment edged up slightly in April (+19,000), similar to the increase observed in March. This follows large gains at the start of the year. Statistics Canada reported that the unemployment rate nudged up to 6.1 percent in April. Self-employment and full-time work accounted for all of the employment gains in April.

Over the past 12 months, employment increased by an estimated 348,000 (+2.1%), with full time growing twice as fast as part time. The employment rate, the share of the working-age population who are employed, continued to hover around a record high in April.

Accommodation & Food
With gains in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, accommodation and food services continued to add employment in April (+22,000). These recent increases offset losses observed towards the latter part of last year.

Construction
Construction employment continued on its upward trend in April (+16,000). This brings employment gains over the last 12 months to 113,000 (+10.1%), the largest of any industry.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing employment edged down in April, continuing the downward slide that began towards the end of 2002. Over the last 12 months alone, employment fell by 112,000, with nearly half the losses in Ontario (-50,000) and the remainder mainly in British Columbia (-29,000), Quebec (-13,000) and Alberta (-11,000).

Manitoba
In April, employment increased by an estimated 9,000 in Manitoba, boosting employment growth over the past 12 months to 3.1 percent. The added employment in April pushed the unemployment rate down 0.5 percentage points to 3.8 percent, the second lowest in the country after Alberta. Manitoba’s employment and participation rates both attained all-time highs in April.

Ontario
Employment in Ontario edged up 12,000 in April, mainly among younger workers, bringing growth since April 2007 to 2.2 percent, just above the national average. Increases over this period occurred in construction as well as several service industries. However, the downward trend in manufacturing employment continued, with a decline of 15,000 in April.

Newfoundland & Labrador
Newfoundland & Labrador experienced an employment gain in April (+2,400), continuing the upward trend which started last summer, bringing its employment rate to a record high of 52.6 percent. Over the last 12 months, employment has increased by 2.3 percent, with growth stemming from construction, professional, scientific and technical services as well as public administration.

Alberta and British Columbia
In Alberta and British Columbia, the continued strength of the labour market resulted in record high employment rates in April for both provinces. Employment growth in British Columbia and Alberta over the last 12 months has been above the national average, at 3.4 percent and 3.0 percent respectively. In April, there was little change in employment in both provinces.

Quebec
Employment in Quebec fell by an estimated 20,000 in April, mostly among youths, pushing the unemployment rate in the province up 0.3 percentage points to 7.6 percent. This is the first significant employment decline in two years. There were fewer people working this April in a number of service industries and in agriculture. The decrease leaves employment in the province up only 0.7 percent (+27,000) above the level of 12 months ago.

More adult women working
Women aged 25 and over were the only demographic group to experience employment growth in April (+17,000), once again keeping their unemployment rate below that of adult men (4.7% versus 5.2%). Despite this month’s increase, the rate of employment growth for adult women since April 2007 (+1.6%), was below that of adult men (+2.4%).

13 May 2008

Canadian home sales will remain strong in 2008 despite trending lower from record-levels last year, according to a new forecast prepared by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Home sales are forecast to ease 11.5 per cent to 460,900 units in 2008, and to ease a further 4 per cent the following year. Prices are still forecast to set new records in every province this year and next, but price gains will be smaller than in recent years.

Canadian home sales are forecast to slow gradually in all provinces in 2008, but record-level activity in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador during the first quarter will result in new annual records in these provinces. New listings are forecast to rise in all provinces. The gradual decline in sales activity combined with an increase in new listings will result in a more balanced resale housing market. The market is forecast to remain tightest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and as a result price increases there will be biggest.

The average price is forecast to rise 5.3 per cent in 2008 and a further 4.2 per cent next year, pushing prices to new heights. Price gains will become smaller as the resale housing market becomes more balanced.

12 May 2008

Canadian Census data has showed an 11.1 percent increase in the average Canadian family income between 1980 and 2005. As a result of strong economic growth fostered by gains in employment, a further 2.1 percent increase was observed between 2005 and 2006.

Families had an estimated average income after taxes of $58,300 in 2006, up 2.1 percent from 2005 in real terms. It was the third consecutive annual increase. In 2006, the increase was mainly the result of gains in both market income and government transfers.

The gain in after-tax income was shared by most family types, including senior families, those in which the main income earner was aged 65 and over, and younger, working-aged families. Senior families had an average after-tax income of $42,400, up 2.9 percent. Working-aged families had an average of $62,000, a 1.8 percent gain.

Both senior and working-aged family average after-tax income increased by roughly 18 percent in real terms since 1996.

Persons living alone or “unattached individuals” had an average after-tax income of $22,800 in 2006, up 4.6 percent from 2005.

Average incomes for Alberta families far ahead of other provinces

For the third consecutive year, families living in Alberta had the highest average after-tax income ($70,500), followed by those in Ontario ($62,400) and British Columbia ($60,300).

Alberta and Saskatchewan were the only two provinces for which the yearly change in after-tax family income was markedly higher. The average rose 7.0 percent in Alberta and 6.3 percent in Saskatchewan.

Average government transfers for families increased in three provinces: New Brunswick, Ontario and Alberta.

In Alberta, average government transfers doubled to $3,000 in 2006 from $1,500 in 2005. This large increase was generated by a one-time Energy Rebate program.

7 May 2008

In February, the average weekly Canadian earnings of all payroll employees (full and part-time) increased to $786.80. Compared with a year earlier, average weekly earnings were up 3.1 percent.

Among Canada’s largest industrial sectors, earnings rose 5.8% in health and social assistance, 2.6 percent in manufacturing, 2.5 percent in educational services, and 0.9 percent in retail trade compared with a year earlier.

Alberta (4.9 percent) and Manitoba (4.5 percent) posted the strongest year-over-year earnings growth among the provinces.

The average hourly earnings ($19.59) and the average weekly hours for hourly paid employees (31.1 hours) were unchanged from January.

Canadian Average Weekly Earnings By Province
February 2008

Canadian Average Weekly Earnings By Industry
February 2008

1 May 2008