Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador have stepped into a new era of prosperity, according to a study released in the Canadian Economic Observer. The ongoing commodity boom, starting in 2002, offered a unique opportunity for these two provinces to tap into their natural resources as never before. Driven by export growth, notably that of crude oil, Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy led the nation in terms of growth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007, at 13.4 percent. Saskatchewan followed with growth of 11.4 percent, ahead of Alberta’s 8.3 percent.

Newfoundland & Labrador’s growth in nominal GDP of 76 percent between 2002 and 2007 also topped Alberta’s gain of 73 percent. Saskatchewan posted the third highest gain over the period, its GDP advancing 49 percent.

In terms of GDP per capita, Newfoundland & Labrador has registered the largest turnaround in one decade in Canadian history. In 1997, it was $10,000 below the Canada average, and as recently as 2005 it remained below average. But in 2007, it jumped to $57,348, over $10,000 above the Canada average of $46,441.

Alberta ($74,825), Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan ($51,327) were the only three provinces where GDP per capita was above average in 2007.

Oil
Higher crude oil prices have been driving the boom in Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan. They are the top producers of crude petroleum in Canada after Alberta, accounting for almost one-third of Canada’s production.

Exports
Newfoundland & Labrador’s international exports soared 20 percent in 2007, the most rapid growth of any province. Between 2002 and 2007, exports doubled to reach $12 billion, as prices rose for Newfoundland & Labrador’s energy products and metals.

In 2007, Saskatchewan exported $21 billion to other countries, a 13 percent increase over 2006. This placed Saskatchewan behind only Newfoundland & Labrador for the title of fastest growing provincial exports. In addition to crude oil, agricultural products, potash, and uranium have made major gains since 2005.

Population
Perhaps most significantly, both Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan have reversed their long-term trend of a declining population. In the last two quarters of 2007, the number of people moving into Newfoundland & Labrador was the highest that it had been in 30 years. At the same time, out-migration slowed, resulting in the population increasing for the first time in 15 years.

Saskatchewan’s population grew 0.8 percent in 2007, its first increase in over a decade, which put the population once again to 1 million. Moreover, the population of the 15 and over age group in Saskatchewan in April 2008 was 2.0 percent larger than it was in April 2007. This was just slightly slower than the 2.2 percent year-over-year increase in Alberta.

Incomes
As incomes have risen and population growth has resumed, Newfoundland & Labrador and Saskatchewan consumers have gone on a buying binge, leading provincial growth in retail, housing and auto sales.

26 May 2008